In March 2024, India’s External Affairs Minister expressed complete backing for the Philippines in safeguarding its sovereignty during his trip to Manila. This support came amidst the prolonged tensions between the Philippines and China over the South China Sea, also known as the West Philippine Sea. The year 2023 saw heightened confrontations and strained diplomacy between the two nations in this maritime dispute.
In 2023, India and the Philippines issued a joint statement urging China to follow the rules of maritime law and recognize the International Court of Justice’s decision in 2016 that favored the Philippines. This marked a change from India’s previous stance of being cautious and neutral regarding the South China Sea issue.
In recent years, India has shifted its stance on the South China Sea, aligning more closely with international maritime laws and asserting sovereignty rights. This change reflects India’s growing global strategic and economic goals.
Relevancy for UPSC Aspirants
Disputes in the South China Sea (SCS)
Sovereignty Disputes:
- Paracel Islands: China, Taiwan, and Vietnam contest ownership. China has controlled them since 1974.
- Spratly Islands: China, Taiwan, and Vietnam claim all, while Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines claim some. Vietnam and Taiwan have the most and largest presence, respectively.
- Scarborough Shoal: China and the Philippines claim it, with China controlling it since 2012.
- Nine-Dash Line: China’s expansive claim overlaps with the EEZs of several Southeast Asian countries.
Dispute over Freedom of the Seas:
- Interpretation of UNCLOS: The U.S. and most nations say coastal states can’t regulate navigation in EEZs, but China disagrees.
- Territorial Seas and EEZs: UNCLOS grants rights based on land features and distance from coasts.
Dangerous Encounters at Sea:
- Unsafe Maneuvers: China’s ships and aircraft have been accused of risky behavior in the SCS.
Tensions Between China and Other Claimants:
- Philippines vs. China: Tensions peaked in 2013 when China gained control of Scarborough Shoal. In 2016, an UNCLOS tribunal ruled against China’s claims.
China’s Artificial Islands:
- Land Reclamation: China built artificial islands between 2013-2015, militarizing them extensively, surpassing other claimants’ efforts.
Dismantled Regional Cooperation:
- ASEAN and China: Negotiations for a code of conduct since 2002 have stalled, with allegations that China prolongs them to consolidate its position.
India’s Shifting Stance on the South China Sea
Past Neutral Stance:
- In 2016, India stayed neutral when the Philippines contested China’s actions in the South China Sea.
- India’s aim was to avoid taking sides, considering China’s rejection of the tribunal’s ruling.
New Standpoint in 2020:
- India changed its position in 2020, supporting a peaceful resolution and international law adherence.
- This marked a significant shift, as India had previously stayed neutral.
Joint Military Activities:
- Since 2019, India has participated in joint military exercises in the South China Sea.
- This includes activities with the U.S., Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Australia, and Indonesia.
Increased Military Support:
- India has boosted military aid to the Philippines and Vietnam.
- Deals include exporting BrahMos missiles to the Philippines and providing a light missile frigate to Vietnam.
Complex Relationship with China:
- India’s stance is influenced by its complex ties with China.
- Ongoing border disputes, incursions, and recent incidents like the Galwan Valley clash affect India’s position.
Reasons for the Shift:
Strategic Interests:
- India is concerned about tensions affecting its dominance in the Indian Ocean.
- Increased presence in the South China Sea is a response to these worries.
Act-East Policy:
- India’s policy shift emphasizes active engagement in the Indo-Pacific.
- This reflects a broader foreign policy approach focusing on strategic partnerships and security cooperation.
Trade Security:
- India’s trade security depends on safe navigation through the South China Sea.
- Half of India’s foreign trade passes through the Malacca Strait, making the area crucial.
Energy Resource Diversification:
- India supports exploration projects in Vietnam’s EEZs for economic and strategic reasons.
- This aligns with international law principles and safeguards India’s energy interests.
United States Collaboration:
- Common interests with the United States drive India’s involvement in South China Sea matters.
- Both countries share concerns about China’s dominance and support a rule-based world order.
Indo-Pacific Responsibility:
- India’s role as a responsible stakeholder requires clear positions on critical issues.
- Its centrality in the Indo-Pacific necessitates engagement beyond the Indian Ocean.
Support for ASEAN Centrality:
- India’s Indo-Pacific strategy supports ASEAN’s centrality.
- Despite internal differences, India aims to reinforce ASEAN’s position in the region.
Future Trends in India’s Presence in the South China Sea
- India’s Growing Stakes in the Region:India’s interest in the South China Sea is increasing because of its growing trade, investment, and defense ties with ASEAN countries. This means India will likely get more involved in the region’s issues, which could make the situation more complicated and involve more countries.
- Offsetting China’s Advantage in the Sino-Indian Border: India is using its involvement in the South China Sea to counterbalance China’s advantages along their border. Since the clashes in Galwan Valley in May 2020, India has been paying more attention to the South China Sea. With tensions still high along the border, India may use this issue to weaken China’s position there.
- Assistance from the USA: The United States is likely to support India in South China Sea disputes. With ongoing tensions between China and the U.S., and relatively stable relations between China and India, India may take advantage of this situation. It could work with the U.S. to counter China’s influence in the region.
Ways to Mitigate the Crisis in the South China Sea
Leverage Economic Options:
- The United States and other claimant countries can impose sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals involved in illegal activities in the South China Sea.
- They should clearly communicate that any military actions by China will be met with a strong response.
Encourage Other Nations to Align Against China:
- Nations affected by China’s actions can work together to criticize and condemn China’s behavior.
- They can issue formal statements or resolutions in international forums like ASEAN or the United Nations.
- Conducting joint military exercises can also demonstrate unity against Chinese aggression.
Enforce a Code of Conduct:
- Involved countries can establish and enforce a code of conduct to respond to provocative actions by Chinese vessels.
- This could include measures like intercepting or seizing Chinese vessels that violate agreed-upon rules.
Enhance Security Cooperation and Assistance:
- Support Southeast Asian countries in improving their military capabilities, including setting up a networked maritime awareness center.
- This center would help monitor activities in the South China Sea and enforce rules of engagement.
Propose Discussions About Arms Control:
- Suggest discussions among South China Sea countries about reducing military activities near Chinese military outposts.
- Encourage China to adhere to international rules and norms through diplomatic pressure.
Fostering Dialogue:
- Recognize that a political solution is needed and encourage dialogue among ASEAN nations.
- Focus on finding solutions through diplomacy rather than legal methods.
India’s Advocacy for a Rules-Based Order:
- India advocates for a rules-based international maritime order, emphasizing UNCLOS.
- This indirectly challenges China’s territorial claims and promotes regional stability.
Continue Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs):
- The United States and claimant countries can continue FONOPs near contested features to assert freedom of navigation.
- Maintain a distance to avoid provoking China while upholding international law.
Improve Maritime Reconnaissance and Surveillance:
- Enhance surveillance capabilities to monitor China’s activities and respond effectively.
- This improves warning time and coordination in defensive measures, without provoking China.
By implementing these measures, countries can work towards easing tensions and promoting stability in the South China Sea.
Conclusion
India may become more involved in the South China Sea, which could worry China. But India’s influence there is limited. Unlike the US, India doesn’t have strong partnerships or a big military presence in the area. This means India can’t get too deeply involved. Also, India’s main focus is on controlling the Indian Ocean, not taking over China’s role in the South China Sea.
India has been more supportive of the Philippines and the United States regarding the South China Sea disputes, but has avoided directly challenging China. India’s collaboration with the U.S. on this matter is limited due to its longstanding nonaligned stance and strong desire for strategic independence.