The evolving geopolitical landscape in South Asia underscores the need for India to adapt its approach towards its neighboring countries with prudence and pragmatism. The recent upheaval in Bangladesh, resulting in the resignation of the Prime Minister and the Bangladesh Army’s interim governance, highlights the volatility of regional politics and the imperative for India to support the democratic aspirations of its neighbors while maintaining strategic relationships. The parallels with Nepal’s 2006 movement for multi-party democracy remind us that India’s diplomatic stance should align with the popular will, fostering stability and positive engagement. As regional dynamics continue to evolve, India’s commitment to fostering peace, stability, and development in its neighborhood will not only secure its own strategic interests but also contribute to the broader goal of regional harmony and prosperity.
Origin of the Article
This editorial is based on “With Bangladesh in turmoil, why India should exercise caution” which was published in The Indian Express on August 6, 2024. The article highlights the need for India to navigate the shifting political landscape in Bangladesh with sensitivity, balancing support for democratic processes while safeguarding its strategic and economic interests.
Relevancy for UPSC Students
Understanding the political and economic situations in India’s neighborhood is crucial for UPSC aspirants. The topic ties directly with the International Relations section of the UPSC syllabus, covering India and its neighbors, regional groupings, and international policies affecting India’s interests. Grasping these dynamics aids in answering questions related to regional stability, diplomatic strategies, and geopolitics in South India.
Why in News
The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, marked by the resignation of its Prime Minister and interim military governance, is crucial for UPSC aspirants. Understanding this event helps in analyzing India’s diplomatic strategies, regional stability, and its implications for bilateral relations. This topic resonates with previously asked questions on India’s neighborhood relations and strategic interests, enhancing comprehension of dynamic geopolitical landscapes.
Introduction to India’s Role in South Asia
India holds a pivotal role in South Asia, leveraging its strategic and diplomatic prowess to foster regional stability and address complex geopolitical challenges. As the largest democracy and economy in the region, India’s actions significantly impact the stability and development of its neighboring countries. This editorial explores India’s efforts and strategies in navigating the tumultuous landscape of South Asia.
Continuous Political and Economic Turmoil in South Asia
The South Asian region is marred by persistent political and economic instability, which is deeply interconnected and exacerbated by various internal and external factors. These issues pose significant challenges to regional peace and development.
Military Interference in Civilian Governance
Countries like Pakistan, Myanmar, and Bangladesh have experienced several military coups, disrupting democratic processes and leading to severe human rights violations. For instance, Pakistan has been under military rule for nearly half of its existence, while Myanmar’s 2021 coup resulted in widespread unrest. Bangladesh has also seen multiple military interventions, undermining political stability and economic progress.
Economic Vulnerabilities and External Dependencies
Economic crises in countries such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Pakistan highlight their financial vulnerabilities and reliance on external aid. Sri Lanka’s 2022 economic crisis, Bangladesh’s dependence on the garment industry, Maldives’ tourism sector, and Pakistan’s significant debt to China exemplify these challenges, making these nations susceptible to global economic fluctuations.
External Influences and Geopolitics in South Asia
China’s strategic investments through initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and infrastructure projects in Nepal have increased Beijing’s influence in South Asia. The leasing of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port to China underscores how economic dependencies can evolve into geopolitical leverage, challenging India’s strategic interests.
Climate Change and Environmental Challenges
South Asian countries face severe environmental threats, including rising sea levels and natural disasters. The Maldives risks submersion due to sea-level rise, while Bangladesh may have millions of internal climate migrants by 2050. Pakistan’s devastating floods and Nepal’s rapidly retreating glaciers further exacerbate regional instability and economic losses.
Legacy of Colonial Structures and Fragile Institutions
Colonial legacies, such as the Radcliffe Line, have left unresolved border disputes and weak institutions, contributing to ongoing conflicts like the India-Pakistan Kashmir issue. Many South Asian nations fall into “flawed democracy” or “hybrid regime” categories, reflecting the fragility of their political institutions, as highlighted by the Democracy Index 2020.
Demographic Pressures and Socio-Economic Disparities
A significant youth population and high unemployment rates pose socio-economic challenges. Pakistan, for instance, has a large young demographic, with 64% under the age of 30, increasing the need for job creation. High youth unemployment in Nepal and Sri Lanka further strains their economic systems, potentially leading to social unrest.
Major Challenges India Faces in Its Neighborhood
India faces numerous strategic and diplomatic challenges stemming from the volatile political and economic conditions of its neighboring countries. These complexities require nuanced and multifaceted approaches to maintain regional stability.
Pakistan
India-Pakistan relations remain fraught with tension over Kashmir and cross-border terrorism. Pakistan’s economic crisis and its growing ties with China through CPEC pose additional strategic challenges for India, complicating efforts to stabilize the region.
Bangladesh
Political upheaval in Bangladesh, marked by the resignation of its Prime Minister, threatens the positive trajectory of India-Bangladesh relations. Key issues such as the Teesta River agreement and illegal migration remain contentious, exacerbated by potential military rule and increased migration pressures.
Nepal
Nepal’s political instability and its balancing act between India and China, particularly through projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, pose challenges for India. Border disputes, such as the Kalapani issue, and shifting political alliances necessitate careful diplomatic navigation.
Sri Lanka
India’s support has been crucial in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. However, bilateral issues like the Katchatheevu island dispute and the rights of Tamil minorities remain sensitive topics, requiring diplomatic finesse to maintain positive relations.
Maldives
The election of a pro-China president in the Maldives has shifted its foreign policy, reducing Indian influence. The “Indian-out Campaign” underscores the challenges India faces in maintaining its strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region.
Myanmar
The military coup in Myanmar and the resulting civil unrest have created complex challenges for India, including managing the Rohingya refugee crisis and balancing its strategic interests with concerns over Chinese influence and human rights issues.
Bhutan
While India-Bhutan relations are robust, Bhutan’s efforts to diversify its foreign relations present new dynamics. The unresolved Doklam issue and Bhutan’s evolving aspirations necessitate an updated approach to maintaining strong bilateral ties.
Afghanistan
Post-Taliban takeover, India has maintained relations with Afghanistan through humanitarian aid. However, India’s investments in Afghanistan’s development are at risk, and its strategic influence has diminished, complicating efforts to stabilize the region.
PESTEL Analysis
| Political: India faces diverse political challenges across South Asia, including military interventions in neighboring countries and strained relations due to border disputes and political turmoil. The balance between supporting democracy and maintaining strategic interests is crucial. Economic: The region’s economic vulnerabilities, including high external debts in countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka and dependency on specific industries like tourism in the Maldives and the garment sector in Bangladesh, present challenges for India. Economic cooperation and stability are vital for regional prosperity. Social: Demographic pressures, such as high youth populations in several countries, necessitate job creation and economic opportunities. Migration issues, particularly with Bangladesh and Myanmar, are also significant concerns. Technological: Connectivity initiatives like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and digital empowerment through India’s IT sector can foster better integration and economic growth within the region. Environmental: Environmental challenges like rising sea levels in the Maldives, glacier retreat in Nepal, and flooding in Pakistan and Bangladesh require cooperative disaster response and sustainable environmental policies. Legal: Colonial legacies have left unresolved border disputes and fragile institutions, influencing the legal and institutional frameworks within which India and its neighbors interact. Strengthening legal frameworks and resolving disputes through diplomatic channels are essential for regional stability. |
India’s Resilience Amid Neighboring Turmoil
India’s resilience in maintaining stability despite regional challenges can be attributed to several key factors, including its robust constitutional framework, vibrant civil society, and effective governance structures.
Robust Constitutional Framework and Institutional Strength
India’s Constitution and judiciary uphold democratic norms and act as checks on executive power. Landmark cases like Kesavananda Bharati and the 2G spectrum verdict demonstrate the judiciary’s role in safeguarding democracy. The Election Commission ensures free and fair elections, reinforcing India’s democratic resilience.
Vibrant Civil Society and Free Press
India’s active civil society and free press play crucial roles in promoting accountability and democratic discourse. The Right to Information Act empowers citizens, while movements like Jan Lokpal have influenced policy changes. The digital revolution further democratizes information access, fostering transparency.
India’s Apolitical Armed Forces and Civilian Control
India’s armed forces maintain a strict apolitical stance, respecting civilian authority. This principle of civilian control has prevented military coups and ensured the armed forces focus on national security and disaster response, as seen during the Uttarakhand floods and Wayanad rescue operations.
Federal Structure and Decentralization
India’s federal system promotes regional autonomy and policy experimentation. Constitutional amendments like the 73rd and 74th strengthen local governance, while the GST implementation showcases cooperative federalism. Special provisions, such as Article 371, accommodate regional needs, ensuring balanced development.
Political Alternation and Multiparty System
India’s multiparty system and peaceful transfer of power highlight its democratic health. Elections in 2014 and 2024 exemplify robust democratic exercises, contributing to political stability and continuity of governance.
Economic Liberalization and Middle Class Growth
Economic reforms since 1991 have bolstered India’s democratic stability by fostering middle-class growth and reducing poverty. The expanding middle class acts as a stabilizing force, supporting democratic institutions and processes.
Managing Divergent Interests and Separatist Tendencies
India addresses regional aspirations and separatist movements through negotiation and political integration. Agreements like the Naga Peace Accord and the Tripura NLFT agreement demonstrate India’s commitment to maintaining unity amid diversity and fostering national cohesion.
Measures India Can Take to Enhance Relations with Neighbors
To strengthen regional stability and ties with neighboring countries, India can adopt several strategic measures, focusing on connectivity, economic empowerment, cultural exchange, disaster diplomacy, multilateral cooperation, green initiatives, and sports diplomacy.
Connectivity Catalyst
Accelerating initiatives like the BBIN Motor Vehicles Agreement and establishing more Integrated Check checkposts can enhance regional integration. Expanding digital connectivity through projects like the South Asian Satellite will position India as a facilitator of regional prosperity.
Economic Empowerment
Transitioning to a trade-focused strategy and establishing joint economic zones can stimulate regional economic integration. Initiatives like the Neighborhood First Economic Zone and border haats will create mutual economic dependencies, fostering cooperative relations.
Cultural Confluence
Leveraging cultural heritage through ICCR scholarships, the Buddhist Circuit, and promoting Bollywood can enhance people-to-people connections. Expanding cultural centers and hosting students from neighboring countries will strengthen cultural ties.
Disaster Diplomacy
Establishing a South Asian Disaster Response Force and shared early warning systems will position India as a responsible regional leader. Utilizing space technology for a regional satellite-based disaster management system will foster goodwill and practical assistance.
Multilateral Mediation
Revitalizing SAARC and focusing on non-controversial areas like climate change, public health, and education can build regional consensus. Encouraging Track II diplomacy and think tank collaborations will help resolve contentious issues and promote multilateralism.
Green Diplomacy
Spearheading a South Asian Green Alliance for climate change cooperation will position India as a responsible stakeholder. Sharing clean technologies, joint research, and preferential access to green hydrogen and solar sectors will enhance regional ecological security.
Sports Solidarity
Reviving and expanding the South Asian Games, establishing a Sports Development Fund, and organizing cricket series will foster regional unity. Offering training facilities and coaches to neighboring countries will showcase India’s soft power and create positive engagement opportunities.
Conclusion
In conclusion, India’s foreign policy in South Asia must be a delicate balance of pragmatism and principle. As future policymakers, UPSC aspirants should recognize the importance of fostering regional stability while safeguarding national interests. By promoting democratic values, enhancing economic ties, and leveraging soft power, India can navigate the complex geopolitical landscape, ensuring peace, prosperity, and cooperative relations with its neighbors.
| UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Questions (PYQs) Mains Q. Discuss the significance of India’s relations with its neighbors and the challenges faced in fostering these relationships. (GS Paper III, 2022). Q. Evaluate the implications of the 2021 military coup in Myanmar on regional stability and India’s Act-East policy. What measures should India take to address the humanitarian and strategic challenges arising from this situation? |
