The global nuclear order is rapidly changing with new major powers like the United States, Russia, and China and conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas ones that are challenging the old arm control norms. Nuclear weapons are more and more used for political leverage, creating a complex and unstable world. For India, this changing nuclear order is a significant strategic challenge in an increasingly unstable multi-nuclear neighborhood.
| GS Paper | GS Paper II, GS Paper III |
| Topics for UPSC Prelims | Global nuclear order, Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas conflict, Hypersonic glide vehicles, Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile, Conference on Disarmament, International Atomic Energy Agency, International Atomic Energy Agency, Kudankulam nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine |
| Topics for UPSC Mains | India’s Stance Regarding the Use of Nuclear Weapons, Threats that India Faces Due to Shift in Global Nuclear Order. |
Origin of the Article
This editorial is based on “Behind the making of the global nuclear (dis)order“ published in The Hindustan Times on 03/12/2024. It discusses the unraveling global nuclear order and its impact on India’s strategic landscape.
Relevance for UPSC Aspirants
Understanding the dynamics of the global nuclear order is crucial for UPSC aspirants. This topic is relevant for GS Paper 2 and GS Paper 3, covering international relations, nuclear technology, and government policies. It provides insights into global security issues and India’s strategic stance, aiding in comprehensive exam preparation.
Why in News?
Global Nuclear Order in Unraveling- the Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Hamas conflicts become imperative for the UPSC aspirant, as it relates to the strategic environment in India. The topic comes under the purview of the General Studies Papers 2 and 3, pertaining to international relations, government policies, and the impact of technological advancement on national security. Previously, the UPSC questions covered issues concerning nuclear safeguards and energy policies; therefore, this topic comes under high relevance for both the prelims and mains exams.
How Global Nuclear Order is Evolving?
The global nuclear landscape is witnessing significant shifts, driven by geopolitical rivalries, technological advancements, and the erosion of multilateral arms control agreements. These dynamics are creating new challenges and reshaping the balance of power. Key players like the U.S., China, and Russia are at the center of this evolving order, while emerging threats add complexity to global security frameworks.
Geopolitical Rivalries Reshaping the Nuclear Balance
The intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition is fundamentally altering nuclear postures worldwide. China’s development of hypersonic glide vehicles marks a shift from its traditional minimum deterrence strategy, challenging U.S. capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. counters with military aid to Taiwan and enhanced AUKUS cooperation, indicating a new phase of nuclear balancing.
Technological Disruptions Amplifying Strategic Instability
Advancements in AI, cyberwarfare, and space-based systems are increasing nuclear vulnerabilities. These technologies undermine the traditional Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) doctrine. Companies like Elbit Systems and partnerships like Slingshot Aerospace with DARPA highlight the role of AI in modern defense, increasing the complexity of nuclear command and control systems.
Rise of Nuclear Arm Race
Increased non-compliance and diminished credibility highlight the fragmentation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty framework. Iran’s nuclear activities and the rivalry between India and Pakistan, who are developing tactical nuclear forces while India is creating the Agni-V ICBM, point to the rebirth of the nuclear arms race. The rapid expansion by China to more than 500 nuclear warheads has escalated tensions in the region.
Growing Cyber Threat to Nuclear Infrastructure
Rising security concerns surround nuclear infrastructure with potential cyberattacks. Dual-use technologies proliferate and the Stuxnet malware attack on Iran’s centrifuges indicate that the threat of nuclear terrorism is rising. Catastrophic results are likely if cyber safeguards are weak, thus strong security measures are needed.
Erosion of Multilateral Arms Control and Disarmament Institutions
Global arms control regimes are deteriorating, with major powers systematically undermining multilateral agreements. The Conference on Disarmament is paralyzed, and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons is almost completely ignored by nuclear-armed states. This erosion undermines the global stability and complicates the process of disarmament.
Integration of Civilian Nuclear Programs in Military Strategies
The dual-use nature of nuclear technology is being increasingly exploited for latent deterrence. Nations like South Korea improve civilian nuclear capabilities, while Japan shifts its policy post-Fukushima to develop next-generation nuclear power plants. All these blur the distinction between civilian and military nuclear programs.
What is India’s Stance Regarding the Use of Nuclear Weapons?
India has adopted a principled and strategic nuclear weapons approach: promotion of peaceful nuclear use without any compromise in credible deterrence. India has a balance of its energy need with strategic defense, although not being a signatory to the NPT. The balance of non-proliferation and international cooperation characterizes India’s nuclear policy.
Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy
India is adamant that nuclear energy be used exclusively for peaceful purposes, such as power generation, medicine, and industry. With 22 operational reactors and commitments to the Convention on Nuclear Safety, India believes that the nuclear energy approach will be viable in meeting their increasing demand without carbon emission.
Commitment to No First Use (NFU) Policy
India follows a No First Use policy; that is, nuclear weapons are used only for deterrence purposes. The Nuclear Doctrine of 2003 also reiterates the same policy; however, it has a credible minimum deterrence with strategic stability and flexibility to evolve according to the changes in threats.
Strategic Autonomy in Non-Proliferation
India supports the objectives of the NPT but not its discriminatory aspect, with strategic autonomy. The NSG waiver granted in 2008 to India has permitted it to be a nuclear commerce country. This has given rise to several civil nuclear cooperation agreements between India and some other countries.
Active Role in Global Non-Proliferation Initiatives
India supports global non-proliferation through strong domestic safeguards and international collaboration. It adheres to IAEA safeguards for civilian nuclear facilities and has voluntarily placed some facilities under international oversight, reflecting its commitment to non-proliferation.
Balancing Civilian and Strategic Needs
India balances its civilian nuclear energy program with its strategic arsenal through its indigenous three-stage nuclear power program, which takes advantage of thorium reserves. The BARC facility is a representation of the focus on self-reliance and indigenous development for both civilian and strategic purposes.
Emerging Role in Climate Goals
Nuclear energy is a critical component of India’s climate commitments under the Paris Agreement. The country is planning to expand its nuclear energy portfolio and aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2070, which puts nuclear power at the forefront of its future energy mix.
What Threats that India Faces Due to Shift in Global Nuclear Order?
These challenges include erosion of arms control agreements, tactical nuclear threats, and vulnerabilities from advanced technologies and pose emerging threats to the country in light of shifting global nuclear orders. India needs strategic adjustment for national security.
Erosion of Global Arms Control Agreements
The nuclear proliferation risks increase with the collapse of key arms control treaties, such as the suspension of NewSTART. India’s security is impacted by the lack of global norms and India’s non-membership in the NSG due to Chinese opposition, limiting access to advanced nuclear technology, which complicates India’s security landscape.
Tactical Nuclear Threats in Conventional Conflicts
The risk of Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence and deployment of tactical nuclear weapons escalates during conventional wars. This doctrine erodes regional stability, making nuclear use in localized wars even more probable, thus threatening the security of India directly.
Increased Vulnerability Due to Emerging Technologies
Advancements in hypersonic missiles, cyberwarfare, and AI-driven systems increase the vulnerability of India. Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, such as the 2019 Kudankulam malware incident, underscore these risks, and therefore, enhanced security measures must be taken to protect vital assets.
Shifting Alliances in a Multipolar World
Emerging alliances, such as the China-Russia strategic partnership, and nuclear technology exchanges with Pakistan destabilize India’s regional security. These partnerships might result in shared technologies and coordinated policies against India, making it more complex for India.
Pressure on India’s NFU Policy
Evolving threats coming from adversaries challenge India’s No First Use policy. Tactical nuclear deployments made by Pakistan and assertiveness of China might just force India to alter her defensive posture, possibly going in for a recarving of its nuclear doctrine to ensure strategic deterrence.
Economic and Environmental Risks from Nuclear Developments
Global nuclear energy policies and India’s expansion plans raise economic and environmental issues. Nuclear accidents in war zones, such as Zaporizhzhia, are a reflection of the risks of nuclear fallout, thus requiring stricter safety measures to avoid such risks.
What Steps Can India Take to Address the Growing Nuclear Threat?
India can take several strategic steps to reduce the increasing nuclear threats, such as modernizing its nuclear deterrence, enhancing cybersecurity, and advocating for global arms control. These steps will enhance India’s defense capabilities and contribute to global stability.
Strengthen and Modernize India’s Nuclear Deterrence
India needs to invest in upgrading its nuclear arsenal and delivery systems, including hypersonic missiles and MIRV capabilities. Upgrades of SLBM systems, such as INS Arihant-class, ensure a credible deterrent against threats from China and Pakistan that evolve over time and help maintain strategic balance.
Improve Cybersecurity for Nuclear Infrastructure
Implementing advanced cybersecurity protocols in nuclear infrastructure is crucial to protect it from cyberattacks. A dedicated agency can be established and AI-driven systems integrated for monitoring purposes, thereby mitigating risks through learning from incidents such as the 2019 Kudankulam malware attack.
Reassess and Refine the No First Use (NFU) Policy
Keeping NFU as a core, India should introduce conditional flexibility to enhance strategic ambiguity. The clarification of conditions for massive retaliation in response to non-nuclear threats can deter adversaries and ensure a robust defensive posture against evolving challenges.
Accelerate Indigenous Development of Nuclear Technology
Prioritize self-sufficiency in nuclear energy, and fast-track India’s three-stage nuclear program, with an emphasis on thorium-based reactors. Scaling up the AHWR projects, next-generation small modular reactors, and other smaller reactors can significantly decentralize energy production and improve resilience.
Strengthen Nuclear Command and Control Systems
Upgrading command and control infrastructure is required in order to make more decisive decisions during crises. Augmentation of communication, improvement in leadership survivability, and AI-based early-warning system integration will enhance timely and strategic response.
Advocate for Global Arms Control and Disarmament
India must take the lead in pushing for a new international framework on arms control that will address emerging threats, such as hypersonic missiles and AI-driven weapon systems. Reopening discussions on the Rajiv Gandhi Action Plan and working with like-minded countries through platforms like the G20 can lead to building a consensus on banning destabilizing technologies.
Leverage Quad and Other Regional Alliances for Strategic Advantage
Through Quad and similar platforms, India can address nuclear risks in the Indo-Pacific region through intelligence sharing, joint military exercises, and maritime security. Nuclear-risk mitigation as part of the Malabar naval exercises and joint exercises with Japan and Australia would further strengthen regional security.
Promote Public Awareness and Transparency in Nuclear Policy
Educating citizens on nuclear safety and strategic doctrine is the most important step toward public confidence. Periodic white papers and public engagement enhance national cohesion by discouraging adversaries from using misinformation to their advantage and ensures informed public support during crises.
Leverage Multilateral Diplomacy for Nuclear Security
Actively engaging with the IAEA to improve global nuclear safety and security standards is crucial. Advocating for NSG reforms to ensure India’s entry and working with international coalitions to tackle issues such as hypersonic missile proliferation and AI-driven systems can help strengthen global nuclear security frameworks.
PESTEL Analysis
| Political: India’s nuclear policy is shaped by geopolitical rivalries like US-China tensions and the China-Pakistan alliance. India maintains strategic autonomy by avoiding the NPT while balancing threats from Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons and China’s growing arsenal, which undermine regional stability and demand robust deterrence strategies. Economic: India’s nuclear energy program supports industrial growth and climate goals. However, investing in advanced nuclear technologies and deterrence systems like Agni-V requires significant resources. Balancing economic constraints with sustainable energy through nuclear power is crucial for achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 while maintaining strategic capabilities. Social: Public concerns about nuclear safety demand greater awareness campaigns, especially following incidents like Fukushima. Regional instability from nuclear risks, such as fallout or accidents, could lead to displacement and panic. Promoting national security awareness and fostering public trust in nuclear energy is essential for social stability. Technological: Technological disruptions, including AI, cyberwarfare, and hypersonic missile systems, enhance India’s nuclear deterrence but increase vulnerabilities. Cyberattacks, like the Kudankulam incident, underline the need for stronger safeguards. India’s investment in indigenous technologies like thorium reactors and advanced delivery systems reflects a drive for self-reliance and modernization. Environmental: Nuclear power is pivotal for India’s climate goals, offering a clean energy alternative. However, nuclear accidents could cause severe environmental and health impacts, especially in densely populated regions. Resource-intensive cooling systems also pose challenges in water-scarce areas, highlighting the need for sustainable nuclear infrastructure. Legal: India’s non-signatory status to the NPT limits access to advanced technologies but ensures policy independence. International arms control agreements’ erosion weakens global governance, affecting India’s security. Advocacy for a new framework and adherence to IAEA safeguards bolster India’s role in shaping global nuclear norms. |
Conclusion
In conclusion, the emerging global nuclear order poses multifaceted challenges to India’s strategic landscape. To ensure national security, India needs to strengthen its nuclear deterrence, invest in advanced technologies, and strengthen cybersecurity measures. Moreover, active diplomatic engagement in global arms control initiatives is crucial. By balancing strategic autonomy with international cooperation, India can navigate these complexities and contribute to global stability.
| UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Questions (PYQs) Mains Q. India’s strategic posture has evolved in response to the changing global nuclear order. In light of recent conflicts and emerging technologies, analyze the threats that India faces due to shifts in the global nuclear order and discuss its stance regarding the use of nuclear weapons. (UPSC Mains 2020, GS Paper II) Q. The global nuclear order is facing significant challenges, with countries like Russia, China, and the US challenging arms control agreements and norms. Discuss the implications of the shifting global nuclear order on India’s nuclear strategy. How should India adapt its strategic posture in the context of an increasingly volatile and multi-nuclear neighborhood? |
